Predicting Bitcoin’s Price? Roll A Dice!


Looking up ‘Bitcoin Price’ in Google search produces a plethora of price predicting articles which apply various methods to forecast Bitcoin price. Some would say cryptocurrency price prediction is akin to gambling and that some prognosticators guide by gut while others follow the divining rod of technical analysis to find their way. Coalescence of BTC price prediction articles produces a range of sometimes contradictory and confusing opinions on the direction of BTC price. Here are 3 price prediction scenarios for the 2nd quarter growth of BTC.

Sitting Sideways


Dependent upon cryptocurrency current events and technical factors, BTC could trade sideways for the foreseeable future or rebound once a bottom is found. Before today’s upward movement, BTC had been oversold, meaning selling pressure appeared to be alleviating and the RSI under 30 combined with persistently negative regulatory reports and exchange closures support the prediction of continued sideways trading. At the moment the absence of confident buyers and less than stellar volume are standing in the way of continuously rising prices for BTC.


Banks Bringing the Bull?


The belief that a tidal wave of institutional investment into cryptocurrency markets partially drove the latter part of the 2017 rally and predictions of $1 to $3 trillion dollar crypto market caps were bandied about without apprehension. Fast forward to Q2 of 2018 with a market cap 60%+ below December highs and the question of when will markets turn around is on the mind of every investor, trader and maybe even the hodlrs. Fortunately, these rumors weren’t purely based on fluff. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley currently clear Bitcoin futures contracts for select qualified investors, while the average joe can now dabble in crypto via CME and CBOE futures. RobinHood Crypto brings simple cryptocurrency investment to your phone through an easily navigable app and there is already a long list of hedge funds either investing or planning to funnel institutional and client funds into cryptocurrencies. A handful of these institutions plan to roll out their crypto services in Q2 through Q4 and as the securities and exchange commission (SEC) evaluates applications for publicly traded, private buy-and-hold and hedge fund applications the hope is that increased crypto purchasing will revive the bull.


Death Cross & Crash

Some analysts forecast the bearish crossing of the 50 day MA and 200 day MA as a harbinger of doom and while last night’s pop to $7,427 may have temporarily suppressed fears of a death cross, BTC is still trading in a downward channel with the possibility of struggling to rise above $7,500 and $8,000. BTC’s RSI for the last 3 days had shown oversold conditions but at the time of writing the RSI has reached 55. For the short term especially, and until BTC trades above the downward channel resistance near $8,200, traders should take caution as this pop could be the development of a bear trap followed by further downward movement in BTC price. While fears of a death cross seem a bit overblown it is possible that BTC could descend back toward $6500 and perhaps lower as a floor has yet to be determined. Whether your method be lying prostrate and praying to the gods old and new, or simply scouring the charts through the use technical analysis. One thing is for sure, Bitcoin appears to have a mind of its own.


Disclaimer: The views expressed in this article are not intended as investment advice. Market data is provided by Bitfinex and CoinMarketCap. The charts for analysis are provided by TradingView.

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